• Race to Dubai: Tommy, Justin or Sergio?

    Tommy Fleetwood leads Race to Dubai
    The man to beat in Dubai

    With 47 events done and one to go, the Race to Dubai comes down to just three players. At the conclusion of this week’s DP World Tour Championship, Dubai, only Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Rose or Sergio Garcia can be crowned as the Race to Dubai champion for 2017.

    But what does each need to do clinch the prestigious title as European Tour Number One?

    What does Tommy Fleetwood need to do to win?

    It is simple really, the current Race to Dubai leader needs to equal or better Justin Rose’s finishing position to stay ahead of the Turkish Airlines Open champion and claim the title. So long as Rose doesn’t finish in the top five and Garcia doesn’t win, Fleetwood will be crowned European Number One.

    What does Justin Rose have to do?

    Rose is currently 256 737 points behind Fleetwood in the Race to Dubai and therefore will need to finish no worse than solo fifth in order to have any chance of winning the season-long title. As long as Fleetwood doesn’t win, a solo second place finish for Rose would be enough to secure the 37 year old’s second Race to Dubai title.

    Memorably, Rose won the final event of the 2007 season, in a playoff at the Volvo Masters at Valderrama, to overtake Ernie Els and become the Order of Merit champion for the first time.

    What would Sergio Garcia need to do?

    For Garcia, the task is straight-forward but by no means easy. To have any chance of overtaking Rose and Fleetwood, the Masters champion would need to win at Jumeirah Golf Estates. That, along with Fleetwood finishing outside of the top 20 and Rose finishing worse than solo fourth, would see the Spaniard complete one of the most dramatic final event comebacks the Race to Dubai has ever witnessed.

    Garcia has finished inside the top 25 in all six of his appearances as this event but has never finished in the top five. His best performance was a tied seventh place finish in the inaugural DP World Tour Championship in 2009.

    What are the probabilities of each player winning?

    According to our numbers, based on simulations, statistics, form and history at the event, Tommy Fleetwood has a 73 per cent chance of being the Race to Dubai on Sunday night. Rose’s chances are 24 percent and Garcia just three per cent.

    Who can still finish in the top ten in the Race to Dubai?

    As for the players who have a chance of sharing in the five million dollar Race to Dubai bonus pool, anyone in the top 45 in the rankings can still climb into the top ten. The only exceptions to that are Rory McIlroy and Henrik Stenson, who are ranked 11th and 15th respectively but not playing this week due to injury.

    Credit: European Tour

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